IB Score Predictor

What are my chances of reaching my target IB score?

By James Fenwick — IB Physics & Mathematics Tutor
Former IB Teacher at St. Louis School Milan & St. Gilgen International School

How Does This Work?

Students often wonder: "Is it realistic to get 45 points with these subjects?" This tool gives you a data-driven answer.

Select your 6 IB subjects and set a target score. The calculator combines real grade distribution data from 202,102 students in May 2025 to compute the probability of reaching that score or higher — including the TOK and Extended Essay bonus points (0–3 extra points).

The chart shows the full spread of expected scores. Bars at or above your target are highlighted. You can also see which of your subjects is the biggest obstacle to hitting your goal.

Note on the method: This tool uses a Student Ability Model — a shared latent ability factor shifts all 6 subject distributions together, capturing the real-world correlation that students who excel in one subject tend to excel across all of them. The TOK/EE bonus is also modelled as correlated with subject performance. Subject grade distributions are calibrated against May 2025 IB data (202,102 students). The total score model is calibrated against May 2019 IB data — the most recent year the IB published a full breakdown of students by total score out of 45.

Step 1: Choose Your 6 Subjects

Type in the search box to filter the subject list for each group slot.

Step 2: Set Your Target Score

6 subjects (max 42 pts) + TOK/EE bonus (max 3 pts) = 45 maximum

38

out of 45

645

Data source: IB Diploma Programme May 2025 Final Statistical Bulletin — 202,102 students | 3,400 schools | 153 countries | 249 subjects analysed. TOK/EE bonus calculated from published grade distributions.

Want Personalised Advice?

Data shows probabilities for the average student. I can help you assess your specific strengths, school context, and university goals to make the right subject choices for you.

Get in touch for personalised subject advice